Temporal and geographic trends in homicide and suicide rates in Mexico, from 1998 through 2012

We analyze and discuss the temporal and geographic trends in the officially registered violence-related deaths (216,462 homicides and 77,334 suicides) that occurred between 1998 and 2012 on Mexican territory. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were fitted, separately for men and women and different age groups, where (a) the evolution of the log-odds of the homicide and suicide rates over time was assumed to follow a piecewise linear function and (b) the geographic variation in the latter function was accounted for by random effects associated with the 2,456 municipalities in the country. The homicide analyses show that, although the absolute homicide rates strongly differ between men and women (with a factor of about 10), the overall temporal trends for women between 16 and 49 years and men between 16 and 60 years of age are remarkably similar, in that the rates decrease until 2007 and strongly increase afterwards. In absolute terms, men between 20 and 49 years form the most vulnerable group with an averaged homicide rate in 2012 of over 40 per 100,000. Geographically, homicide rates in 2012 are found to be the highest in the states known for the drugs-related violence, which are also the states where the increase between 2007 and 2010 was the strongest. As to the suicide rates, a steady increase was found over the 15-year study period in females between 12 and 39 years and in men between 12 and 49 years of age, while in the other age groups, the rates remained relatively constant On average, a completed suicide is about eight times more likely in adult men than in adult women (although important interactions with age should be considered); men between 20 and 49 years of age, together with those over 75, are most vulnerable, with an average suicide rate of over 10 per 100,000 in 2012. In order to decrease the levels of violence in Mexico, moving beyond the political rhetoric and the implementation of evidence-based prevention programs are imperative. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.