Simulating seismicity in Creighton Mine: A 3-D self-organized critical model

A three dimensional self-organized critical model is used to simulate seismicity in Creighton Mine. Three hundred eighty eight faults are included in the model, each represented by an individual 2-D cellular automata. The model is loaded from point sources that simulate blasting; the stress transfer function from these stylized blasts is time dependent and based on a generalized Kelvin substance. The model is parameterized by loading it with an actual blast sequence and comparing the global statistics of the predicted and observed seismicity. The free parameters in the model are adjusted to minimize the differences between the catalogs and the best model agrees with observation at a 99.5% confidence level. The model is tested by loading it with a different blast sequence and comparing the predicted seismicity with the seismicity observed in that time period; the results agree within a 95% confidence level. Further tests show that the model is sensitive to both structure and loading, randomizing either destroys the correlation between observed and predicted seismicity. The model correctly predicts the number of large events resulting from a given blast sequence and the timing of those events with respect to blasts. Both the number and timing of large events in the model depend on the details of the blasting sequence.