Popularity and Vote: Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election

被引：5
|
作者：
Auberger, Antoine [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Paris, Paris, France
来源：
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE-REVUE CANADIENNE DE SCIENCE POLITIQUE | 2010年 / 43卷 / 01期
关键词：
STATE POLLS; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; MODEL;
D O I：
10.1017/S0008423909990771
中图分类号：
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号：
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要：
The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the outcome of the second-round vote in the French presidential elections (with the hypothesis of a classic duel between left and right) in each department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of the popularity of the Socialist party and a partisan variable in the explanation of the second-round vote for the candidate of the left in the French presidential elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1981-1995 and 1981-2007, excluding 2002) arc satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election.
引用
收藏
页码：123 / 136
页数：14
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