IS THERE UNIT ROOT IN THE NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS: A MONTE CARLO INVESTIGATION?

Use of the time-series econometric techniques to investigate issues about environmental regulation requires knowing whether air pollution emissions are trend stationary or difference stationary. It has been shown that results regarding trend stationarity of the pollution data are sensitive to the methods used. I conduct a Monte Carlo experiment to study the size and power of two unit root tests that allow for a structural change in the trend at a known time using the data-generating process calibrated to the actual pollution series. I find that finite sample properties of the Perron test are better than the Park and Sung Phillips-Perron (PP) type test. Severe size distortions in the Park and Sung PP type test can explain the rejection of a unit root in air pollution emissions reported in some environmental regulation analyses.