A Method for Assessing Relative Skill in Retrieving Cloud and Precipitation Properties in Next-Generation Cloud Radar and Radiometer Orbiting Observatories

A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is utilized to compare the skill of an A-Train-like observing system with a cloud, convection, and precipitation (CCP) observing system like that contemplated for the 2020s by the 2017 National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey. The main objective is to demonstrate a framework for observational trade space studies. This initial work focuses on weakly precipitating warm shallow cumulus constructed from in situ data. Radiative computations are based on Mie theory with spherical assumptions. Simulated measurements in the CCP configuration consist of W- and Ka-band radar reflectivity and path-integrated attenuation, 31 and 94 GHz brightness temperatures (Tb), and visible and near-infrared reflectances. The collection of measurements in the CloudSat configuration is identical, but includes a single 94 GHz radar frequency, and the uncertainty in the 94 GHz microwave brightness temperature is increased to mimic the CloudSat Tb product. The experiments demonstrate that it remains a challenge to diagnose cloud properties in the presence of light rain because of the tendency of microwave remote sensing to respond to the higher moments of the hydrometeor populations. Rain properties are significantly better constrained than cloud properties, even in the optimal CCP configuration. The addition of Ka-band measurements places substantial constraints on the precipitation rain effective radius and rain rates. The Tb offers important information regarding the column-integrated condensate mass, the measurement accuracy of which appears more likely to affect the retrievals of clouds with low liquid water path. The constraints provided by reflectances are largely restricted to regions near the cloud top, particularly in the raining cases.