Using Value Models for Business Risk Analysis in e-Service Networks

Commercially provided electronic services commonly operate on top of a complex, highly-interconnected infrastructure, which provides a multitude of entry points for attackers. Providers of e-services also operate in dynamic, highly competitive markets, which provides fertile ground for fraud. Before a business idea to provide commercial e-services is implemented in practice, it should therefore be analysed on its fraud potential. This analysis is a risk assessment process, in which risks are ordered on severity and the unacceptable ones are mitigated. Mitigations may consist of changes in the e-service network to reduce the attractiveness of fraud for the fraudster, or changes in coordination process steps or IT architecture elements to make fraud harder or better detectable. We propose to use e(3) value business value models for the identification and quantification of risks associated with e-service packages. This allows for impact estimation as well as understanding the attacker's business cases. We show how the e(3) value ontology - with minimal extensions can be used to analyse known telecommunication fraud scenarios. We also show how the approach can be used to quantify infrastructure risks. Based on the results, as well as feedback from practitioners, we discuss the scope and limits of generalizability of our approach.