Ethnic minority party formation and success in Europe

What causes ethnic minority parties (EMPs) to emerge, and why do only some of them become electorally successful? I test commonly offered explanations for variation in EMP emergence and success with a large-N, cross-national quantitative analysis on an original dataset of European legislative elections in the period 1990-2012. Using generalized linear mixed and Heckman selection models, I find that ethnic groups that are native to their state and that have previous experience with autonomy are most likely to establish and support EMPs. These historical factors eclipse the influence of variables like electoral rules, the state's party system and political culture, and support from kin states and international organizations.