Innovation Forecasting: A Case Study of the Management of Engineering and Technology Literature

The following paper contributes to the methodology of innovation forecasting. The paper analyzes the literature of engineering and technology management. A brief history and justification for interest in engineering and technology management is presented. The field has a sixty year history of interdisciplinarity, and is therefore a ripe source for closer investigation into time trends of knowledge. The paper reviews the literature of innovation forecasting, examining a range of theoretical and methodological literatures interested in the evolution of knowledge. A new model, suitable for sparse and count-like data is presented. A mathematical presentation of the model is offered. A discussion is offered of how the model may be implemented in an approachable way within spreadsheet software. A time history of engineering management literature is extracted from a database and analyzed using the model. A projection of keyword growth is offered, and key features of the emerging knowledge base within engineering management are discussed. Recommendations for future research, as well as for those monitoring the status of the discipline of engineering management, are made.