Risk-based Autonomous Maritime Collision Avoidance Considering Obstacle Intentions

A robust and efficient Collision Avoidance (COLAV) system for autonomous ships is dependent on a high degree of situational awareness. This includes inference of the intent of nearby obstacles, including compliance with traffic rules such as COLREGS, in order to enable more intelligent decision making for the autonomous agent. Here, a generalized framework for obstacle intent inference is introduced. Different obstacle intentions are then considered in the Probabilistic Scenario-Based Model Predictive Control (PSB-MPC) COLAV algorithm using an examplatory intent model, when statistics about traffic rules compliance and the next waypoint for an obstacle are assumed known. Simulation results show that the resulting COLAV system is able to make safer decisions when utilizing the extra intent information.