Socio-Demographic Factors Involved in a Low-Incidence Phase of SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Sicily, Italy

Background: The present study analysed SARS-CoV-2 cases observed in Sicily and investigated social determinants that could have an impact on the virus spread. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 cases observed among Sicilian residents between the 1 February 2020 and 15 October 2020 have been included in the analyses. Age, sex, date of infection detection, residency, clinical outcomes, and exposure route have been evaluated. Each case has been linked to the census section of residency and its socio-demographic data. Results: A total of 10,114 patients (202.3 cases per 100,000 residents; 95% CI = 198.4-206.2) were analysed: 45.4% were asymptomatic and 3.62% were deceased during follow-up. Asymptomatic or mild cases were more frequent among young groups. A multivariable analysis found a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 cases was found in census sections with higher male prevalence (adj-OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.99-0.99; p < 0.001) and presence of immigrants (adj-OR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92; p < 0.001). Proportion of residents aged <15 years, residents with a university degree, residents with secondary education, extra-urban mobility, presence of home for rent, and presence of more than five homes per building were found to increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Conclusion: Routinely collected socio-demographic data can be predictors of SARS-CoV-2 risk infection and they may have a role in mapping high risk micro-areas for virus transmission.