Higher education dropout and hiring prospects in the apprenticeship market. A factorial survey of employers

Thousands of higher education dropouts try to gain access to the labor market by applying for apprenticeships in the German dual education system. However, little is known about their hiring prospects. The present study draws on human capital as well as signaling/screening theories to analyze the hiring prospects for dropouts compared to school leavers qualified for university study with whom dropouts compete for attractive apprenticeships. Using a factorial survey experiment, N & x202f;= 695 employers rated more than 5000 fictitious CVs of job applicants that randomly varied on higher education dropout and other characteristics. In sum, multilevel analyses show that the probability of being invited for a job interview within the IT sector is higher for dropouts than for school leavers, but not within the commercial sector. Moreover, academic performance, fields of study and internships that are relevant to the job increase the probability to be invited for a job interview, while dropping out at a later stage has negative consequences. The study, therefore, provides practical relevant findings on the causal effect of dropping out, qualifying the commonly discussed claim that dropouts would carry a stigma of having failed.