Extreme values of storm surge elevation in Hangzhou Bay

被引：14

作者：

Liu, Guilin ^{[1
]}

Gao, Zhikang ^{[1
]}

Chen, Baiyu ^{[2
]}

Fu, Hanliang ^{[3
,4
]}

Jiang, Song ^{[3
]}

Wang, Liping ^{[5
]}

Wang, Ge ^{[6
]}

Chen, Zhengshou ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Ocean Univ China, Coll Engn, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Coll Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Xian Univ Architecture & Technol, Sch Management, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

[4] Illinois State Univ, Coll Appl Sci & Technol, Dept Technol, Bloomington, IN USA

[5] Ocean Univ China, Sch Math Sci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China

[6] Jiangsu Univ Sci & Technol, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[7] Zhejiang Ocean Univ, Zhoushan, Peoples R China

来源：

SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES | 2020年 / 15卷 / 04期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Extreme value theory; storm surge elevation; threshold; Pearson-III-Pareto distribution; WAVE HEIGHT; CHINA; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1080/17445302.2019.1661618

中图分类号：

U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;

摘要：

This paper presents a statistical analysis of storm surge in Hangzhou Bay, where storm surge is known taking place frequently. This study utilises measurement data taken the period of 1974-2006. The Pearson-III-Pareto distribution model was used first to fit with extreme values based on these measurement data and was then compared with Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson-III, Pareto distribution functions for estimations of extreme storm surge values correspondingly to 100-, 200-, 400-, 500-, 700- and 1000-year return periods. The predicted values of storm surge elevation in the 1000-year return period of the new model are 2.179% higher than the Weibull distribution and 3.546% lower than the Pearson-III distribution. Expectedly, the proposed Pearson-III-Pareto distribution is a more reasonable for presenting the statistical characteristic of extreme values of storm surge.

引用

页码：431 / 442

页数：12

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