Patterns of fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviour over time: change and continuities among the urban poor in Nairobi, Kenya

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the association between fertility preferences and contraceptive use among 15-49-year-old women living in Korogocho and Viwandani, informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. We draw on longitudinal data collected under the Maternal and Child Health project conducted between 2006 and 2010 in the two settlements. There is substantial regularity and stability but also unusual instability in reported fertility preferences over time among women living in these settings. Younger women, aged 15-24 years, are likely to change their preferences over time, passing from limiting to wanting additional children. But women aged 35-49 are likely to change their preferences from desiring more children to limiting their childbearing. The desire to limit childbearing is strongly associated with the use of modern and long-acting contraceptive methods. Findings have major implications for the success of family planning programmes in informal settlements where access to and knowledge about contraception may be limited.