Managing uncertainty in forecasting the diffusion of telecommunications innovations

The Study presents bow adding more independent explaining variables and applying neural networks for forecasting purposes could improve the forecasting accuracy of the diffusion of innovations. The paper proposes a set of uncertainty sources of telecommunications industry that have notable affect on the diffusion of innovations in the field. Diffusion patterns and uncertainty indicators of 81 countries were classified using self-organizing map neural network approach. and die results indicate that various levels and types of uncertainty are likely to produce different types of diffusion patterns.