A CENTURY OF US FARM PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A SURGE THEN A SLOWDOWN

U.S. farm productivity growth has direct consequences for sustainably feeding the world's still rapidly growing population, as well as U.S. competitiveness in international markets. Using a newly expanded compilation of multifactor productivity (MFP) estimates and associated partial-factor productivity (PFP) measures, we examine changes in the pattern of U.S. agricultural productivity growth over the past century and more. Considering the evidence as a whole, we detect sizable and significant slowdowns in the rate of productivity growth in recent decades. U.S. multifactor productivity grew at an annual average rate of just 1.16% per year during 1990-2007 compared with 1.42% per year for the period 1910-2007. U.S. yields of major crops grew at an annual average rate of 1.17% per year for 1990-2009 compared with 1.81% per year for 1936-1990. More subtly, but with potentially profound implications, the relatively high rates of MFP growth during the third quarter of the century are an historical aberration relative to the long-run trend.