Vulnerability of tourism to climate change on the Mediterranean coastal area of El Hammam-EL Alamein, Egypt

The north-western Mediterranean coast of Egypt, including the study area from El Hammam to EL Alamein, is a hub for economic and coastal tourism development. Coastal tourism is recognized as a driving force for the economic development and sustainability in Egypt, however, it is an environment and climate-dependent industry. This study explores the potential impacts of climate change (CC) and the sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal tourism in El Hammam-EL Alamein area. The adopted methodological framework for this study comprises the assessment of the vulnerability of the area and the coastal tourism to climate change and sea-level rise via the development of a digital elevation model (DEM) and inundation models, besides the assessment of the temperature change employing the tourism climate index (TCI). The (DEM) and inundation models demonstrate the vulnerability of the eastern sector of the study area to the projected (SLR) following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6 & 8.5) scenarios. Consequently, 34 to 36 coastal resorts will be inundated (about 46.5% and 49.3%) from the existing 74 resorts; and most likely the area will experience the following: (a) regression of the shoreline and beach erosion, (b) damage of the coastal infrastructure, (c) devalue of the coastal tourism destination, and (d) decline of revenues. The tourism climate index revealed that the area at present ranges from very good to ideal, in terms of tourism climatic suitability, however, it will experience in the future a shift in the peak seasons from the summer months to the autumn and spring seasons. Assessment of the existing adaptive measures in the area indicates their inadequacy to face the future (CC) and (SLR) and other natural risks such as storms and tsunamis. Actions for adaptation and protection measures to minimize the projected adverse impact of (CC) are proposed to ensure the coastal development and tourism sustainability of the area.