The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated. According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today. The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.