NATO, Missile Defence and Extended Deterrence

NATO should use the next decade to incrementally change its extended deterrence posture from the traditional emphasis on the stationing of US nuclear forces in Europe to a concept that relies upon missile defence. Even if there is a dramatic deterioration of relations with Russia or a nuclear Iran triggers a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, it would be difficult to legitimise the modernisation of nuclear delivery systems operated by Europeans in addition to US strategic nuclear forces. In the short term, NATO should not unilaterally withdraw US nuclear weapons from Europe. Any discussion about a complete US nuclear withdrawal would have a tremendous negative impact on Alliance cohesion. In the medium term, NATO should engage in missile-defense cooperation. In the long term, missile defences should replace what is currently known as NATO's nuclear sharing.