A pretreatment nomogram predicting recurrence- and progression-free survival for nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer in Japanese patients

Our aim was to provide nomograms that allow urologists to easily calculate a nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer patient's risk of recurrence and progression. We retrospectively analyzed 800 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer patients newly diagnosed between 1991 and 2001 from the Gifu urothelial cancer registry program. We developed the nomogram using the original 500 patients and validated it using the remaining 300 patients. The prognostic factors of recurrence and progression were identified by multivariate analysis in 500 patients. In the multivariate analysis, tumor number, shape, grade, and intravesical instillation were associated with recurrence-free survival. Tumor shape and grade were associated with progression-free survival. Six factors for recurrence and three factors for progression were used to make the nomogram. Using the original 500 patients who were modeled for the nomogram, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated to be 0.61 for recurrence and 0.71 for progression. To validate nomogram performance, we applied an additional 300 patients to the nomograms. The AUCs were 0.57 for recurrence and 0.67 for progression. The nomograms that have been developed can be used to predict the probability of recurrence and progression of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer.