PREDICTION OF LAND USE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUE: A CASE STUDY IN NANPING, CHINA

Changes in land use affect the structure, processes, and functions of ecosystems, and thus influence the ability of ecosystems to serve human beings. The prediction of land use and ecosystem services value can provide reference for the rational planning of land resources and relevant policy-making. Based on the CA-Markov model and the service value per unit area of terrestrial ecosystems in China, the area of land use types and ecosystem services value were predicted for 2030 and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward. The study found that from 2015-2030, the area of forest land had the largest increase, while the area of land for construction had the largest decrease. The spatial distribution of land use in 2030 was predicted to be almost the same as that in 2015. The slight increase in the value of ecosystem services in 2030 was mainly due to improvement in the service capacity of waste treatment and gas regulation. The contribution rate of the service value of forest land to the total ecosystem services value was predicted to gradually decrease from 2015-2030.