Assessment of forthcoming climate changes on the territory of the Russian Federation

被引：11
|
作者：
Gruza, G. V. [1 ]
Ran'kova, E. Ya.
机构：
[1] Roshydromet, Inst Global Climate & Ecol, Moscow 107258, Russia
来源：
RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2009年 / 34卷 / 11期
基金：
俄罗斯基础研究基金会;
关键词：
RUSSIAN Meteorology; Ocean General Circulation Model; Multimodel Ensemble; Chukchi Peninsula; Magadan Oblast;
D O I：
10.3103/S1068373909110028
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
A brief characterization of observed climatic changes in surface temperature is presented for the globe and the Russian Federation. In accordance with this characteristic, observed changes are indicative of global warming, most pronounced after the 1970s. The skill in simulating a global climate in the 20th century by modern climate models is analyzed. It is shown that climate models satisfactorily reproduce the fields of long-term means, the seasonal cycle, and tendencies of changes in some meteorological objects, whereas their interannual variability (after removal of the trend) is not virtually simulated by the models. An approach to constructing a strategic forecast of forthcoming climatic changes in the Russian Federation for the next decades is discussed, and recommendations on its using are formulated. A variant of a probabilistic strategic forecast of air temperature for the 30-year period of 2008-2037 over Russia is proposed.
引用
收藏
页码：709 / 718
页数：10
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