Rural population change and settlement patterns in the Kaliningrad region in 1991-2021

The borders of the exclave Kaliningrad region have a more pronounced barrier function than those of other Russian territories. That is why the local socio-economic system is more self-contained. The economic, social, demographic, ekistic, and other processes are easy to model there, and regional theories are convenient to test. The aim of the article is to identify the patterns of polarization of settlement in the Kaliningrad region and the factors that have the most significant impact on the migration movement of the population in the region and the development of rural areas. This article analyses statistical data on changes in settlement patterns to reveal elements of the centre-periphery concept. We use economic-statistical, graphical, and cartographic methods to track the polarisation of settlement patterns and the economy. A distinction is drawn between the centre and the periphery, which differ qualitatively. The rapidly developing Kaliningrad agglomeration in the west of the region constitutes the centre, whilst the less urbanised underachieving east makes up the periphery. In the west, the rural population is often involved in non-agricultural activities and works in the city. Proximity to Kaliningrad and regional towns allows the rural population to benefit from the urban infrastructure, which improves their quality of life. Both urban and rural areas have a positive net migration rate accounted for by the inflow from the east of the region, Russia's eastern and northern territories, and neighbouring countries. People are leaving eastern municipalities because of the modernisation of agriculture, a reduction in employment in the industry, the slow emergence of new jobs, and poorer living conditions.