DETERMINING FACTORS IN THE HISTORICAL DECLINE IN MARITAL FERTILITY IN SPAIN

Some doubts have been cast on the results of research carried out within the Princeton European Fertility Project, as the changes in fertility over time may not have been measured appropriately. We set out to test the explanatory capacity of some socioeconomic variables which have been used to interpret the historical decline in fertility in traditional demographic transition theory: mortality, education, economic development, urbanisation and employment. We collected information for 49 Spanish provinces over a very long period of time (1860-2001) and we carried out panel cointegrating regressions (FMOLS and DOLS). We show that the decline of mortality, the increase in educational level and the economic factors played a leading role in the historical decline in fertility (first demographic transition). The demographic transition theory was dramatically shattered as a result of the research carried out in the course of the Princeton European Fertility Project, but analyses using new econometric techniques show that socioeconomic variables did indeed have a major role in the historical decline in fertility. When modern statistical methods are used, the role of socioeconomic factors in the historical decline of fertility is restored. In the debate surrounding the causes of fertility transition, the results obtained from our analysis of Spanish data oblige us to position ourselves among those experts who maintain that changes in socioeconomic conditions have encouraged couples to have smaller families (adjustment theories).