Evaluating land cover changes in Eastern and Southern Africa from 2000 to 2010 using validated Landsat and MODIS data

In this study, we assessed land cover land use (LCLU) changes and their potential environmental drivers (i.e., precipitation, temperature) in five countries in Eastern & Southern (E & S) Africa (Rwanda, Botswana, Tanzania, Malawi and Namibia) between 2000 and 2010. Landsat-derived LCLU products developed by the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) through the SERVIR (Spanish for "to serve") program, a joint initiative of NASA and USAID, and NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to evaluate and quantify the LCLU changes in these five countries. Given that the original development of the MODIS land cover type standard products included limited training sites in Africa, we performed a two-level verification/validation of the MODIS land cover product in these five countries. Precipitation data from CHIRPS dataset were used to evaluate and quantify the precipitation changes in these countries and see if it was a significant driver behind some of these LCLU changes. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data were also used to see if temperature was a main driver too. Our validation analysis revealed that the overall accuracies of the regional MODIS LCLU product for this African region alone were lower than that of the global MODIS LCLU product overall accuracy (63-66% vs. 75%). However, for countries with uniform or homogenous land cover, the overall accuracy was much higher than the global accuracy and as high as 87% and 78% for Botswana and Namibia, respectively. In addition, the wetland and grassland classes had the highest user's accuracies in most of the countries (89%-99%), which are the ones with the highest number of MODIS land cover classification algorithm training sites. Our LCLU change analysis revealed that Botswana's most significant changes were the net reforestation, net grass loss and net wetland expansion. For Rwanda, although there have been significant forest, grass and crop expansions in some areas, there also have been significant forest, grass and crop loss in other areas that resulted in very minimal nef changes. As for Tanzania, its most significant changes were the net deforestation and net crop expansion. Malawi's most significant changes were the net deforestation, net crop expansion, net grass expansion and net wetland loss. Finally, Namibia's most significant changes were the net deforestation and net grass expansion. The only noticeable environmental driver was in Malawi, which had a significant net wetland loss and could be due to the fact that it was the only country that had a reduction in total precipitation between the periods when the LCLU maps were developed. Not only that, but Malawi also happened to have a slight increase in temperature, which would cause more evaporation and net decrease in wetlands if the precipitation didn't increase as was the case in that country. In addition, within our studied countries, foresdand expansion and loss as well as crop expansion and loss were happening in the same country almost equally in some cases. All of that implies that non-environmental factors, such as socioeconomics and governmental policies, could have been the main drivers of these LCLU changes in many of these countries in E & S Africa. It will be important to further study in the future the detailed effects of such drivers on these LCLU changes in this part of the world.