Demand forecasting of electricity in Indonesia with limited historical data

被引：5

作者：

Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi ^{[1
]}

Prayogi, Arif Rohmad ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Islam Indonesia, Fac Math & Nat Sci, Dept Stat, Jalan Kaliurang Km 14-5 Sleman, Yogyakarta 55584, Indonesia

来源：

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICS: PURE, APPLIED AND COMPUTATION | 2018年 / 974卷

关键词：

D O I：

10.1088/1742-6596/974/1/012040

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

Demand forecasting of electricity is an important activity for electrical agents to know the description of electricity demand in future. Prediction of demand electricity can be done using time series models. In this paper, double moving average model, Holt's exponential smoothing model, and grey model GM(1,1) are used to predict electricity demand in Indonesia under the condition of limited historical data. The result shows that grey model GM(1,1) has the smallest value of MAE (mean absolute error), MSE (mean squared error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).

引用

页数：6

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