Statistical Modeling the First-Time Reach of TV Program

Reach of TV program is a measure of the overall popularity of the program and is used as a criterion to sell the television time. This article proposes a new statistical model based on hazard rate analysis for the first-time reach of TV program, which helps the decision makers at the networks better understand the acceptance of the show and the underlying behavioral patterns of the viewers. The model fits the empirical data in Hong Kong very well and outperforms the existing models. Finally, implications of the model for the marketing of TV program and future research directions are discussed.