A Carbon Cycle Model Based Method for Carbon Neutrality Assessment

A carbon cycle model based method is proposed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of various policies and projects to achieve carbon neutrality. The proposed model was validated by properly reproducing the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the rise of the global average temperature from the data of anthropogenic carbon emissions and deforestation since the industrial revolution. As a case study, a carbon cycle impact assessment was performed for deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation. It was verified that the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is attributed not only to fossil fuel usage, but also to deforestation, and that even if deforestation is immediately followed by reforestation, it takes very long to return to the initial concentration. The proposed method is expected to be eventually applicable to simulation of potential climate control in the future, contributing to safety verification of various climate engineering techniques.