Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence

被引:20
|
作者
Akter, Rokeya [1 ]
Hu, Wenbiao [1 ]
Naish, Suchithra [1 ]
Banu, Shahera [1 ]
Tong, Shilu [1 ]
机构
[1] Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Brisbane, Qld 4059, Australia
关键词
dengue; climate; socioecological; joint effects; relative impacts; projections; NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; FEVER EPIDEMIC; DISEASE; URBAN; RISK; DRIVERS; MODELS; IMPACT; VULNERABILITY; URBANIZATION;
D O I
10.1111/tmi.12868
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
ObjectiveTo assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. MethodsFollowing PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. ResultsTwenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. ConclusionsDue to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. ObjectifEvaluer les donnees epidemiologiques sur les effets conjugues de la variabilite climatique et des facteurs socioecologiques sur la transmission de la dengue. MethodesSuivant les directives de PRISMA, une recherche detaillee de la litterature a ete menee dans PubMed, Web of Science et Scopus. Des articles evalues par des pairs, librement disponibles et en texte integral, tenant compte des facteurs climatiques et socioecologiques lies a la dengue, publies en anglais de janvier 1993 a octobre 2015 ont ete inclus dans cette revue. Resultats20 etudes ont satisfait aux criteres d'inclusion et evaluaient a la fois l'impact des facteurs climatiques et socioecologiques sur la dynamique de la dengue. Parmi celles-ci, quatre etudes ont davantage etudie l'importance relative de la variabilite climatique et des facteurs socioecologiques sur la transmission de la dengue. Quelques etudes ont egalement developpe des modeles predictifs comprenant a la fois des facteurs climatiques et socioecologiques. ConclusionsEn raison des donnees insuffisantes, des problemes methodologiques et de la variabilite contextuelle des etudes, il est difficile de tirer des conclusions sur les effets conjugues de la variabilite climatique et les facteurs socioecologiques sur la transmission de la dengue. Les recherches futures devraient prendre en compte les facteurs socioecologiques en combinaison avec les variables climatiques pour une meilleure comprehension de la nature complexe de la transmission de la dengue ainsi que pour ameliorer la capacite predictive des modeles de prevision de la dengue, afin de developper des systemes d'alerte precoce efficaces et fiables. ObjetivoEvaluar la evidencia epidemiologica sobre los efectos conjuntos de la variabilidad climatica y de factores socio ecologicos en la transmision del dengue. MetodosSiguiendo las guias PRISMA, se realizo una busqueda detallada de literatura en PubMed, Web of Science y Scopus. Se incluyeron en esta revision todos los articulos revisados por pares, disponibles gratuitamente y con textos completos, que consideraban tanto los factores climaticos como socio-ecologicos en relacion al dengue, publicados en ingles entre enero 1993 y octubre 2015. Resultados20 estudios cumplieron los criterios de inclusion y evaluaban tanto el impacto de los factores climaticos como socio-ecologicos sobre las dinamicas del dengue. Entre aquellos, cuatro estudios investigaban la importancia relativa de la variabilidad climatica y los factores socio-ecologicos sobre la transmision del dengue. Unos pocos estudios tambien desarrollaban modelos predictivos, incluyendo tanto factores climaticos como factores socio ecologicos. ConclusionesDebido a datos insuficientes, cuestiones metodologicas y variabilidad contextual de los estudios, es dificil sacar conclusiones sobre los efectos conjuntos de la variabilidad climatica y los factores socio-ecologicos en la transmision del dengue. En el futuro, los estudios deberian tener en cuenta los factores socio-ecologicos en combinacion con las variables climaticas para una mejor comprension de la naturaleza compleja de la transmision del dengue, al igual que para mejorar la capacidad vaticinadora de los modelos de prediccion del dengue, con el fin de desarrollar sistemas de advertencia temprana que sean efectivos y fiables.
引用
收藏
页码:656 / 669
页数:14
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