Genomic predictions of breeding values in a cloned Eucalyptus globulus population in Chile

In Chile, an intensive Eucalyptus globulus clonal selection program is being carried out to increase forest productivity for pulp production. A breeding population was used to investigate the predicted ability of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for genomic selection (GS). A total of 310 clones from 53 families were used. Stem volume and wood density were measured on all clones. Trees were genotyped at 12 K polymorphic markers using the EUChip60K genotype array. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction, Bayesian lasso regression, Bayes B, and Bayes C models were used to predict genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV). For cross-validation, 260 individuals were sampled for model training and 50 individuals for model validation, using 2 folds and 10 replications each. The average predictive ability estimates for wood density and stem volume across the models were 0.58 and 0.75, respectively. The average rank correlations were 0.59 and 0.71, respectively. Models produced very similar bias for both traits. When clones were ranked based on their GEBV, models had similar phenotypic mean for the top 10% of the clones. The predicted ability of markers will likely decrease if the models are used to predict GEBV of new material coming from the breeding program, because of a different marker-trait phase introduced by recombination. The results should be validated with larger populations and across two generations before routine applications of GS in E. globulus. We suggest that GS is a viable strategy to accelerate clonal selection program of E. globulus in Chile.