Incidence and prevalence of self-reported non-coeliac wheat sensitivity and gluten avoidance in Australia

Objectives To determine the incidence of self-reported non-coeliac wheat sensitivity (SR-NCWS) and factors associated with its onset and resolution; to describe the prevalence of factors associated with gluten avoidance. Design Longitudinal cohort study; analysis of responses to self-administered validated questionnaires (Digestive Health and Wellbeing surveys, 2015 and 2018). Setting, participants Subset of an adult population sample randomly selected in 2015 from the electoral rolls for the Newcastle and Gosford regions of New South Wales. Main outcome measures Prevalence of SR-NCWS (2015, 2018) and incidence and resolution of SR-NCWS, each by demographic and medical factors; prevalence of gluten avoidance and reasons for gluten avoidance (2018). Results 1322 of 2185 eligible participants completed the 2018 survey (response rate, 60.5%). The prevalence of SR-NCWS was similar in 2015 (13.8%; 95% CI, 12.0-15.8%) and 2018 (13.9%; 95% CI, 12.1-15.9%); 69 of 1301 respondents (5.3%) reported developing new onset (incident) SR-NCWS between 2015 and 2018 (incidence, 1.8% per year). Incident SR-NCWS was significantly associated with a diagnosis of functional dyspepsia, and negatively associated with being male or older. Gluten avoidance was reported in 2018 by 24.2% of respondents (20.5% partial, 3.8% complete avoidance); general health was the most frequent reason for avoidance (168 of 316 avoiders, 53%). All 13 participants with coeliac disease, 56 of 138 with irritable bowel syndrome (41%), and 69 of 237 with functional dyspepsia (29%) avoided dietary gluten. Conclusions The prevalence of SR-NCWS was similar in 2015 and 2018. Baseline (2015) and incident SR-NCWS (2018) were each associated with functional gastrointestinal disorders. The number of people avoiding dietary gluten exceeds that of people with coeliac disease or SR-NCWS, and general health considerations and abdominal symptoms are the most frequently reported reasons for avoidance.