An econometric analysis of output supply and input demand in the Canadian softwood lumber industry

Few studies have examined the own-price elasticity of Canadian softwood lumber supply or output-adjusted factor demand elasticities over the past two decades, despite the utility of these measures in understanding producer response to tariffs, to market shifts (such as the decline in U.S. public harvest), and to changes in domestic forest policies. The present analysis employs a normalized, restricted quadratic profit function approach to estimate lumber supply and Marshallian factor demand elasticities for three Canadian regions. Results indicate that the lumber supply elasticity in the British Columbia coast region may be twice as large as that in the interior or eastern regions. Comparison of Hicksian factor demand elasticities with earlier studies suggests that the own price elasticity of labor demand may be two or more times larger than that for wood. Results also indicate differential time trends in Marshallian lumber output and wood demand elasticities across regions, rising in the British Columbia coast and falling elsewhere over the past two decades. Morishima elasticities of substitution from the present and past studies indicate that the wood for labor factor intensity is more sensitive to changes in labor price than is the labor for wood intensity to changes in wood price.