Subclinical ketosis risk prediction in dairy cows based on prepartum metabolic indices

Ketosis can seriously impair cow performance. This study detected changes in prepartum blood metabolic parameters for predicting postpartum ketosis occurrence in dairy cows. Body condition score (BCS) was assessed before and after delivery. Blood samples of 63 cows were collected from 10 days before calving to 10 days after calving to measure metabolic parameters including beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA), non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA), glucose (GLU), total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), indirect bilirubin (IBIL), total protein (TP), albumin (ALB), globulin (GLO), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). There was a postpartum subclinical ketosis incidence of 42.25%. Compared with prepartum, plasma, levels of BHBA, AST, and NEFA significantly increased postpartum, and prepartum AST (R=0.57) and NEFA (R=0.45) showed a significant positive correlation with ketosis postpartum. Plasma GLU level significantly decreased postpartum and was significantly negatively correlated with ketosis (R=-0.21). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed prepartum BSC < 2.88, and prepartum plasma AST > 68.0 U/L, GLU < 3.97mmol/L, NEFA > 0.27mmol/L, and BHBA > 0.43mmol/L, indicating a high risk of subclinical ketosis postpartum. These levels can be used as risk indicators to predict the occurrence of subclinical ketosis in postpartum cows.