A Time Series Model to Forecast Electricity Consumption in Taiwan

被引：0

作者：

Chang, Yu-Wei ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Aletheia Univ, Dept Aviat Serv Management, Tainan, Taiwan

来源：

EBM 2010: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENGINEERING AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT, VOLS 1-8 | 2010年

关键词：

SARIMA; electricity consumption; forecast; Taiwan;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Forecasting electricity consumption is an important policy tool for electricity planning all over the world. In this research, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model is employed to forecast the electricity consumption in Taiwan. Monthly time series data covering from Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 are used in this research. Within-sample data from Jan 1997 to Dec 2006 which contains 120 observations are used for model building phase. Remaining data from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008 were retained for assessing the out-of-sample forecasting abilities. The results shows that the SARIMA(2,1,3)(0,1,1)(12) is the best model for forecasting future electricity consumption in Taiwan.

引用

页码：3514 / 3517

页数：4