The Conceptual Model of Predicting the Usage of the Current Yellow River Estuary Route and its Application

After an overall recall of the current situation of the Yellow River estuary flow channel usage research, the flow channel usage conceptual model was built. The model was based on the Yellow River estuary evolution characteristics and was based on the three relationships of estuary river water level, the length of the end flow channel and the cumulative sand amount, using real time measured data. The prediction results show that under the situation of average sand income amount of 492 million tons every year in the estuary in the future, considering the qing - 8 cross river, original river channel, and the north crossing river flowing water in turns, calculating from 2006, the end reach flow channel can be used for at least 41 years. This result is quite close to the usage prediction using water level rising and flow rate method. The article pointed out at last: under the fixed condition of the Yellow River end reach flowing route change standard, the usage of the current Qingshuigou is decided mainly by two factors: one is the water and sand condition in the future estuary and the other is the flow route use model and human interfere measures. But the key factor in current time is the water and sand condition in the estuary.