Coordinated development of industrial structure and energy structure in China: its measurement and impact on CO2 emissions

This study aims to explore the coordinated development of energy and industrial structures in China and their influence on the country's inter-provincial CO2 emissions. The study utilizes an unbalanced panel dataset for 30 provinces in China covering 1995-2014 and, based on this, constructs an index system and measurement model of the coordinated development of industrial and energy structures. Considering the stationarity and cointegration of the variables, a series of econometric techniques are employed. At the same time, panel fully modified- and dynamic ordinary least squares (FMOLS and DOLS, respectively) models are used to estimate the long-term parameters of all variables. The overall estimations imply that the coordinated development levels of the dual structures show fluctuating trends, and are mainly at a low coordinated level (50-85%). The coordinated development degree of the dual structures can lead to a decline in CO2 emissions at the provincial level. The key driver is total energy consumption, followed by, in order of their impacts on CO2 emissions, fossil energy consumption, secondary industry ratio, and total population of the provinces and dual structure collaboration. However, the results indicate varied performance among the variables across regions. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.