Landslide risk assessment: the challenge of communicating uncertainty to decision-makers

Typically landslide risk assessments are based on mixtures of information that differ in status, ranging from welle-stablished knowledge to judgements, educated guesses and tentative assumptions. Uncertainty can be present throughout the various components of a risk model. This review attempts to provide a conceptual framework for assessing uncertainty in landslide risk assessment. It draws attention to the way in which the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports have addressed the degree of uncertainty in key findings, and the GRADE approach for evaluating the quality of medical evidence. Examples are provided of how uncertainty and confidence can be addressed in landslide risk assessments.