Evaluating Passenger Demand for Development of the Urban Transport System by an AHP Model with the Real-World Application of Amman

The demand for a service includes generally two major components; quality elements and the reasonable and affordable price. Public transport can be considered as a special service, there is no direct market competition for the provider, but the use of private transport modes substitutes the usage of public vehicles. The dominating competitor, the usage of private cars, causes higher CO2 emission and has a serious impact on the environment. Thus, it is important to analyze from market and sustainability point of view which are the preferences of the public for the improvement of the urban transport system. This paper aims to conduct this analysis by including quality criteria and transport fare criteria related to the current service of a city and by setting up and testing a generally applicable model for decision support. Since the acquisition of public preference was the primary objective, and the problem can be considered as decision making, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was selected as methodology. There are previous research results of applying this method on public transport, however, not in an integrated model, in which quality and cost considerations are pairwise compared. Thus, the conventional Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was used and the well-proven requisites of consistency and sensitivity check were analyzed. The new model was tested in a case study: surveying the public transport demand in the capital of Jordan, Amman.