SOCIAL DIALOGUE 2030. A STUDY OF THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL DIALOGUE IN CROATIA BY USING THE DELPHI-METHOD

The aim of this article is to discuss potential directions of the development of social dialogue in Croatia. The article presents results of a study carried out towards the end of 2019 with the aim of gaining insight in the perspectives of social dialogue in circumstances of transformed industrial relations in Croatia in 2030. The study was carried out by using the delphi-method and it involved eight experts, representatives of the key participants in social dialogue: government, unions and employers, and researchers from the area of industrial relations. Results are discussed in the context of expected economic, social, and political factors which will exert influence on changes in social dialogue until 2030. A few main research insights are emphasised. Quality of and readiness for social dialogue in Croatia is fairly low, the institutional frame of industrial relations has been weakened, and no major improvements are expected until 2030. Unions will face the challenge of remaining relevant in changed socio-economic circumstances, such as the lack of workforce, changes in patterns of employment, and technological changes. It is expected that trends of decentralisation of negotiations, i .e., strengthening of bipartite social dialogue on the level of companies, will continue. The article emphasises the need for innovative activity of unions and for developing new members.