Temporal change in forest fragmentation at multiple scales

Previous studies of temporal changes in fragmentation have focused almost exclusively on patch and edge statistics, which might not detect changes in the spatial scale at which forest occurs in or dominates the landscape. We used temporal land-cover data for the Chesapeake Bay region and the state of New Jersey to compare patch-based and area-density scaling measures of fragmentation for detecting changes in the spatial scale of forest that may result from forest loss. For the patch-based analysis, we examined changes in the cumulative distribution of patch sizes. For area-density scaling, we used moving windows to examine changes in dominant forest. We defined dominant forest as a forest parcel (pixel) surrounded by a neighborhood in which forest occupied the majority of pixels. We used > 50% and >= 60% as thresholds to define majority. Moving window sizes ranged from 2.25 to 5,314.41 hectares (ha). Patch size cumulative distributions changed very little over time, providing no indication that forest loss was changing the spatial scale of forest. Area-density scaling showed that dominant forest was sensitive to forest loss, and the sensitivity increased nonlinearly as the spatial scale increased. The ratio of dominant forest loss to forest loss increased nonlinearly from 1.4 to 1.8 at the smallest spatial scale to 8.3 to 11.5 at the largest spatial scale. The nonlinear relationship between dominant forest loss and forest loss in these regions suggests that continued forest loss will cause abrupt transitions in the scale at which forest dominates the landscape. In comparison to the Chesapeake Bay region, dominant forest loss in New Jersey was less sensitive to forest loss, which may be attributable the protected status of the New Jersey Pine Barrens.