Bayesian approach for nonlinear random effects models

In this paper, we propose a general model-determination strategy based on Bayesian methods for nonlinear mixed effects models. Adopting an exploratory data analysis viewpoint, we develop diagnostic tools based on conditional predictive ordinates that conveniently get tied in with Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting of models. Sampling-based methods are used to carry out these diagnostics. Two examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of these criteria. The first one is the famous Langmuir equation, commonly used in pharmacokinetic models, whereas the second model is used in the growth curve model for longitudinal data.