Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production

The article addresses the complexities of modelling and forecasting of non-renewable resources production (oil, gas, coal, etc.), by means of combining five production trend models with "custom" asymmetry, as well as with six models of fluctuation components: harmonic, independent from the trend; harmonic, proportional to the trend; simultaneous presence of the first and second models of fluctuation components; harmonic with "weighted amplitude"; "frequency-weighted" harmonics. The purpose of this research is to increase the production forecasting accuracy, by considering the fluctuation components models and by monitoring the models' evolution and fluctuation. The offered methods provide a production forecasting accuracy increase for oil in the U.S. - by 3.2%, for coal in Germany - by 5%, and gas in the Volgograd region (Russia) - by 25%. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.