Closing Pakistan's Yield Gaps Through Nutrient Recycling

Achieving food security will require closing yield gaps in many regions, including Pakistan. Although fertilizer subsidies have facilitated increased nitrogen (N) application rates, many staple crop yields have yet to reach their maximum potential. Considering that current animal manure and human excreta (bio-supply) recycling rates are low, there is substantial potential to increase the reuse of nutrients in bio-supply. We quantified 2010 crop N, phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) needs along with bio-supply nutrient availability for Pakistani districts, and compared these values to synthetic fertilizer use and costs. We found that synthetic fertilizer use combined with low bio-supply recycling resulted in a substantial gap between nutrient supply and P and K crop needs, which would cost 3 billion USD to fill with synthetic fertilizers. If all bio-supply was recycled, it could eliminate K synthetic fertilizer needs and decrease N synthetic fertilizer needs to 43% of what was purchased in 2010. Under a full recycling scenario, farmers would still require an additional 0.28 million tons of synthetic P fertilizers, costing 2.77 billion USD. However, it may not be prohibitively expensive to correct P deficiencies. Pakistan already spends this amount of money on fertilizers. If funds used for synthetic N were reallocated to synthetic P purchases in a full bio-supply recycling scenario, crop needs could be met. Most recycling could happen within districts, with only 6% of bio-supply requiring between-district transport when optimized to meet national N crop needs. Increased recycling in Pakistan could be a viable way to decrease yield gaps.