Limits to prediction of energy balance from milk composition measures at individual cow level

Frequently updated energy balance (EB) estimates for individual cows are especially useful for dairy herd management, and individual-level estimates form the basis for group-level EB estimates. The accuracy of EB estimates determines the value of this information for management decision support. This study aimed to assess EB accuracy through ANOVA components and by comparing EB estimates based either on milk composition (EBalMilk) or on body condition score (BCS) and body weight (BW) (EBalBody). Energy balance based on milk composition was evaluated using data in which milk composition was measured at each milking. Three breeds (Danish Red, Holstein-Friesian, and Jersey) of cows (299 cows, 623 lactations) in parities 1 to 4 were used. Milk data were smoothed using a rolling local regression. Energy balance based on milk composition was calculated using a partial least squares (PLS) model based on milk fat, protein, and lactose contents and yields, and the daily change in these variables at each day. Energy balance based on BCS and BW was calculated from changes in body condition and BW scored weekly or fortnightly. Equations for calculation of EBalMilk and EBalBody used no common variables and were, therefore, assumed mathematically independent. Traits were analyzed within 3 stages of lactation expected to have high mobilization of body tissue (1, early), almost balanced (2), and deposition of body energy (3, mid to late lactation). In general, EBalMilk and EBalBody followed similar expected changes through lactation. Estimates of covariance were obtained using single-trait mixed models with random regression terms describing the change with time and used for calculation of repeatability as intraclass correlations. Within stage, EBalMilk was less repeatable than EBalBody (0.53, 0.41, 0.43 vs. 0.93, 0.91, 0.86, respectively, for stages 1, 2, and 3), mainly because of a larger residual variance for EBalMilk. Correlations between individual-level estimates of EBalMilk and EBalBody were close to zero. However, correlations between EB estimates in different lactation stages tended to be stronger for EBalMilk than for EBalBody, although correlations for both EB traits were small. It is concluded that EB estimates based on milk composition are less accurate than those based on body traits, but EBalMilk can compensate partly for this inaccuracy by being updated more frequently.