Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China

Urban expansion has been a hot topic not only in the management of sustainable development but also in the fields of remote sensing and geographic information science (GIS). After land reform initiated in 1987, Chinese cities are facing a new development wave, which is the mixture of urban expansion and redevelopment. Local urban planners are also facing a huge challenge to require the understanding of complex urban growth process, which involves various actors with different patterns of behavior. Modeling an urban development pattern is the prerequisite to understanding the process. This paper presents a spatial data analysis method to seek and model major determinants of urban growth in the period 1993-2000 by a case study of Wuhan City in PR China. The method comprises exploratory data analysis and spatial logistic regression technique. The former is able to visually explore the spatial impacts of each explanatory variable. The latter can provide a systematic confirmatory approach to comparing the variables. The study shows that the major determinants are urban road infrastructure and developed area, and master planning is losing its role in the specific period. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.