Greenhouse gas emission benefits of vehicle lightweighting: Monte Carlo probabalistic analysis of the multi material lightweight vehicle glider

Vehicle lightweighting reduces fuel cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but may increase vehicle cycle (production) GHG emissions because of the GHG intensity of lightweight material production. Life cycle GHG emissions are estimated and sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses conducted to systematically examine the variables that affect the impact of lightweighting on life cycle GHG emissions. The study uses two real world gliders (vehicles without powertrain or battery) to provide a realistic basis for the analysis. The conventional and lightweight gliders are based on the Ford Fusion and Multi Material Lightweight Vehicle, respectively. These gliders were modelled with internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) powertrains. The probability that using the lightweight glider in place of the conventional (steel-intensive) glider reduces life cycle GHG emissions are: ICEV, 100%; HEV, 100%, and BEV, 74%. The extent to which life cycle GHG emissions are reduced depends on the powertrain, which affects fuel cycle GHG emissions. Lightweighting an ICEV results in greater base case GHG emissions mitigation (10 t CO(2)eq.) than lightweighting a more efficient HEV (6 t CO(2)eq.). BEV lightweighting can result in higher or lower GHG mitigation than gasoline vehicles, depending largely on the source of electricity.