The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profit margins: The UK car market, 1971-2002

We investigate the impact on profit margins of exchange rate fluctuations in order to examine optimal pricing policy by source countries in the UK car market. We first estimate a nested logit demand model of new cars to calculate model-specific profit margins. Next we use these estimates to analyse the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of car importers and local producers. The results show that: (1) profit margins fell over the period 1971-2002 as the UK car market moved from being a concentrated market to a looser oligopoly structure; (2) there is a positive association between exchange rate changes and mark-up adjustments of imported cars. Following a 10% pound depreciation, exporters' profit margins declined by up to 4% and local producers' profit margins increased by up to 2%; (3) PTM behaviour is asymmetric between appreciations and depreciations in bilateral exchange rates.