Applying a Set of Potential Methods for the Integrated Assessment of the Marine Eco-Environmental Carrying Capacity in Coastal Areas

The accelerated socioeconomic development has placed the coastal ecosystems under stress, which influences the sustainable development of coastal areas. Marine eco-environmental carrying capacity assessment (MECCA) can provide a scientific basis for coordinating coastal socioeconomic development and eco-environmental protection, ensuring a more effective marine ecosystem-based management approach toward sustainability. However, accurate assessment methods are still in the exploratory stage, as there has been a lack of systematic research and applications combining integrated MECCA with a unified method to underpin coastal management processes. In light of this issue, this study applied the marine eco-environmental carrying capacity in coastal waters (MECCCW) conceptual framework to support the establishment of an assessment indicator system for MECCA and used the regularization method and entropy method to determine weights. This study also applied the simplified state space model to comprehensively evaluate and analyze the marine eco-environmental carrying capacity (MECC) of coastal areas. Focusing on the coastal area of Sanya Bay, southern China, as the study area, we assessed the MECC for the period from 2015 to 2020. The state of the MECC was divided into three grades: load capacity, full-load capacity, and overload capacity. The results showed that (1) the MECCA indicator system in Sanya Bay included a total of three criteria and eight assessment indicators and (2) the weights of the environmental carrying capacity (ECC) and human activities (HA) were both relatively higher than that of ecological resilience (ER). The latter result indicates that either ECC or HA could play a more predominant role in the changes of the MECC state in Sanya Bay. The results also indicated that (3) for each criterion, ECC, ER, and HA were at load capacity from 2015 to 2020. In this instance, ECC and HA presented similar change trends in relation to the MECC state of Sanya Bay. Finally, (4) the overall Sanya Bay's MECC was also at load capacity and weakened, fluctuating between 2015 and 2020. These findings indicate that the coastal area of Sanya Bay is capable of sustainable development, but that there is a need for further eco-environmental improvement. The results of this study can serve as a reference when decisions have to be made about coastal management from an environmental and ecological perspective. Furthermore, this method may provide a feasible approach for integrated MECCA in other coastal areas.