Resolution of financial market uncertainty around the release of unemployment rate announcements

被引:2
|
作者
Gu, Chen [1 ]
Chen, Denghui [2 ]
Stan, Raluca [3 ]
机构
[1] Shanghai Business Sch, Finance Res Ctr Finance, Shanghai, Peoples R China
[2] Off Comptroller Currency, Washington, DC USA
[3] Univ Minnesota Duluth, Dept Accounting & Finance, Finance, Duluth, MN 55812 USA
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Unemployment news; Financial market uncertainty; Implied volatility; Intraday data; Asymmetric effect; VOLATILITY; LIQUIDITY; VOLUME; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.077
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We provide evidence that the release of the unemployment rate announcement unconditionally leads to financial market uncertainty resolution in the stock, treasury, commodity, and foreign currency markets. The finding is economically valuable. A simple daily strategy of selling the 10year Treasury Note Volatility Index futures before the unemployment rate announcement and closing the position after the announcement generates an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.79, while a similar intraday strategy using VIX futures generates an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.98. Although this resolution is not conditional of the value of the unemployment rate surprise, we also find that larger (lower) than expected unemployment can weaken (strengthen) the uncertainty resolution process.
引用
收藏
页码:586 / 596
页数:11
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