Investment slumps during financial crises: The real effects of credit supply

Using new census-type data and a dynamic structural model, we study the effect of credit supply on investment by manufacturing firms during the Greek depression. Real factors (profitability, uncertainty, and taxes) account for only a fraction of the substantial drop in investment observed in the data. The reduction in credit supply has significant real effects, explaining 11-32% of the investment slump. We also find that exporting firms, which reduce investment and deleverage despite their improved profitability during the crisis, face a contraction in credit supply similar to that of non-exporters, suggesting that the credit supply shock has a significant common component.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.