The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of non-elderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children ("childlessadults"). We take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap in Wisconsin, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants placed on a waitlist using a regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods. We find enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment, with an estimated effect size of just over 5 percentage points, a 12 percent decline. Confidence intervals rule out positive and large negative effects.